Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Amusing ourselves to death (Neil Postman 1985)


Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business (1985) is a book by educator Neil Postman. The book's origins lay in a talk Postman gave to the Frankfurt Book Fair in 1984. He was participating in a panel on George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four and the contemporary world. In the introduction to his book, Postman said that the contemporary world was better reflected by Aldous Huxley's Brave New World, whose public was oppressed by their addiction to amusement, rather than by Orwell's work, where they were oppressed by state violence.

What is the peekaboo world?
a peek-a-boo world, where now this event, now that, pops into view for a moment, then vanishes again. It is an improbable world. It is a world in which the idea of human progress, as Bacon expressed it, has been replaced by the idea of technological progress.



 first idea:  all technological change is a trade-off

second idea:  advantages and disadvantages of new technologies are never distributed evenly among the population

 third idea:  embedded in every technology there is a philosophy, epistemological, political, or social prejudice

fourth idea:  technological change is not Additive; it is Ecological

 fifth idea:  technology becomes mythic which is perceived as part of the natural order of things



Five Things We Need to Know About Technological Change
by Neil Postman
Talk delivered in Denver Colorado
March 28, 1998

Neil Postman, speech at NewTech '98
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZKUak1fYr0

First Idea
----------
First, that we always pay a price for technology; the greater the technology, the greater the price. 

The first idea is that all technological change is a trade-off. I like to call it a Faustian bargain. Technology giveth and technology taketh away. This means that for every advantage a new technology offers, there is always a corresponding disadvantage. The disadvantage may exceed in importance the advantage, or the 
advantage may well be worth the cost. 

Think of the automobile, which for all of its obvious advantages, has poisoned our air, choked our cities, and degraded the beauty of our natural landscape. 

Idea Number One, then, is that culture always pays a price for technology.


Second Idea
-----------
Second, that there are always winners and losers, and that the winners always try to persuade the losers that they are really winners. 

This leads to the second idea, which is that the advantages and disadvantages of new technologies are never distributed evenly among the population. This means that every new technology benefits some and harms others. There are even some who are not affected at all. 

Let us take as another example, television, although here I should add at once that in the case of television there are very few indeed who are not affected in one way or another. In America, where television has taken hold more deeply than anywhere else, there are many people who find it a blessing, not least those who have achieved high-paying, gratifying careers in television as executives, technicians, directors, newscasters and entertainers. 

And now, of course, the winners speak constantly of the Age of Information,
always implying that the more information we have, the better we will be in solving significant problems—not only personal ones but large-scale social problems, as well. But how true is this? If there are children starving in the world—and there are—it is not because of insufficient information. We have known for a long time how to produce enough food to feed every child on the planet. How is it that we let so many of them starve? If there is violence on our streets, it is not because we have insufficient information. If women are abused, if divorce and pornography and mental illness are increasing, none of it has anything to do with insufficient information. I dare say it is because something else is missing, and I don’t think I have to tell this audience what it is. Who knows? This age of information may turn out to be a curse if we are blinded by it so that we cannot see truly where our problems lie. That is why it is always necessary for us to ask of those who speak enthusiastically of computer technology, why do you do this? What interests do you represent? To whom are you hoping to give power? From whom will you be withholding power?

I say only that since technology favors some people and harms others, these are questions that must always be asked. And so, that there are always winners and losers in technological change is the second idea.


Third Idea
----------
Third, that there is embedded in every great technology an epistemological, political or social prejudice. 

Here is the third. Embedded in every technology there is a powerful idea, sometimes two or three powerful ideas. These ideas are often hidden from our view because they are of a somewhat abstract nature. But this should not be taken to mean that they do not have practical consequences.

Perhaps you are familiar with the old adage that says: To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. We may extend that truism: To a person with a pencil, everything looks like a sentence. To a person with a TV camera, everything looks like an image. To a person with a computer, everything looks like data. I do not think we need to take these aphorisms literally. But what they call to our attention is that every technology has a prejudice. Like language itself, it predisposes us to favor and value certain perspectives and accomplishments. 

The third idea, then, is that every technology has a philosophy which is given expression in how the technology makes people use their minds, in what it makes us do with our bodies, in how it codifies the world, in which of our senses it amplifies, in which of our emotional and intellectual tendencies it disregards. This idea is the sum and substance of what the great Catholic prophet, Marshall McLuhan meant when he coined the famous sentence, “The medium is the message.”


Fourth Idea
-----------
Fourth, technological change is not additive; it is ecological, which means, it changes everything and is, therefore, too important to be left entirely in the hands of Bill Gates. 

Here is the fourth idea: Technological change is not additive; it is ecological. 

That is why we must be cautious about technological innovation. The consequences of technological change are always vast, often unpredictable and largely irreversible. That is also why we must be suspicious of capitalists. Capitalists are by definition not only personal risk takers but, more to the point, cultural risk takers. The most creative and daring of them hope to exploit new technologies to the fullest, and do not much care what traditions are overthrown in the process or whether or not a culture is prepared to function without such traditions. Capitalists are, in a word, radicals. In America, our most significant radicals have always been capitalists—men like Bell, Edison, Ford, Carnegie, Sarnoff, Goldwyn. These men obliterated the 19th century, and created the 20th, which is why it is a mystery to me that capitalists are thought to be conservative. Perhaps it is because they are inclined to wear dark suits and grey ties.

All they were trying to do is to make television into a vast and unsleeping
money machine. That they destroyed substantive political discourse in the process does not concern them.


Fifth Idea
----------
And fifth, technology tends to become mythic; that is, perceived as part of the natural order of things, and therefore tends to control more of our lives than is good for us.

I come now to the fifth and final idea, which is that media tend to become mythic. I use this word in the sense in which it was used by the French literary critic, Roland Barthes. He used the word “myth” to refer to a common tendency to think of our technological creations as if they were God-given, as if they were a part of the natural order of things. I have on occasion asked my students if they know when the alphabet was invented. The question astonishes them. It is as if I asked them when clouds and trees were invented.  The alphabet, they believe, was not something that was invented. 

When a technology become mythic, it is always dangerous because it is then accepted as it is, and is therefore not easily susceptible to modification or control. If you should propose to the average American that television broadcasting should not begin until 5 PM and should cease at 11 PM, or propose that there should be no television commercials, he will think the idea ridiculous. But not because he disagrees with your cultural agenda. He will think it ridiculous because he assumes you are proposing that something in nature be changed; as if you are suggesting that the sun should rise at 10 AM instead of at 6.

What I am saying is that our enthusiasm for technology can turn into a form of idolatry and our belief in its beneficence can be a false absolute. The best way to view technology is as a strange intruder, to remember that technology is not part of God’s plan but a product of human creativity and hubris, and that its capacity for good or evil rests entirely on human awareness of what it does for us and to us.

Conclusion
----------
And so, these are my five ideas about technological change. First, that we always pay a price for technology; the greater the technology, the greater the price. Second, that there are always winners and losers, and that the winners always try to persuade the losers that they are really winners. Third, that there is embedded in every great technology an epistemological, political or social prejudice. Sometimes that bias is greatly to our advantage. Sometimes it is not. The printing press annihilated the oral tradition; telegraphy annihilated space; television has humiliated the word; the computer, perhaps, will degrade community life. And so on. Fourth, technological change is not additive; it is ecological, which means, it changes everything and is, therefore, too important to be left entirely in the hands of Bill Gates. And fifth, technology tends to become mythic; that is, perceived as part of the natural order of things, and therefore tends to control more of our lives than is good for us.

source:
 


Summary
Postman distinguishes the Orwellian vision of the future, in which totalitarian governments seize individual rights, from that offered by Aldous Huxley in Brave New World, where people medicate themselves into bliss, thereby voluntarily sacrificing their rights. Drawing an analogy with the latter scenario, Postman sees television's entertainment value as a present-day "soma", the fictitious pleasure drug in Brave New World, by means of which the citizens' rights are exchanged for consumers' entertainment.

The essential premise of the book, which Postman extends to the rest of his argument(s), is that "form excludes the content", that is, a particular medium can only sustain a particular level of ideas. Thus rational argument, integral to print typography, is militated against by the medium of television for this reason. Owing to this shortcoming, politics and religion are diluted, and "news of the day" becomes a packaged commodity. Television de-emphasizes the quality of information in favor of satisfying the far-reaching needs of entertainment, by which information is encumbered and to which it is subordinate.

Postman asserts the presentation of television news is a form of entertainment programming; arguing that the inclusion of theme music, the interruption of commercials, and "talking hairdos" bear witness that televised news cannot readily be taken seriously. Postman further examines the differences between written speech, which he argues reached its prime in the early to mid-nineteenth century, and the forms of televisual communication, which rely mostly on visual images to "sell" lifestyles. He argues that, owing to this change in public discourse, politics has ceased to be about a candidate's ideas and solutions, but whether he comes across favorably on television. Television, he notes, has introduced the phrase "now this", which implies a complete absence of connection between the separate topics the phrase ostensibly connects. Larry Gonick used this phrase to conclude his Cartoon Guide to (Non)Communication, instead of the traditional "the end".

Postman refers to the inability to act upon much of the so-called information from televised sources as the information-action ratio. He contends that "television is altering the meaning of 'being informed' by creating a species of information that might properly be called disinformation—misplaced, irrelevant, fragmented or superficial information that creates the illusion of knowing something but which in fact leads one away from knowing".

Drawing on the ideas of media scholar Marshall McLuhan – altering McLuhan's aphorism "the medium is the message" to "the medium is the metaphor" – he describes how oral, literate, and televisual cultures radically differ in the processing and prioritization of information; he argues that each medium is appropriate for a different kind of knowledge. The faculties requisite for rational inquiry are simply weakened by televised viewing. Accordingly, reading, a prime example cited by Postman, exacts intense intellectual involvement, at once interactive and dialectical; whereas television only requires passive involvement.

Postman argues that commercial television has become derivative of advertising. Moreover, modern television commercials are not "a series of testable, logically ordered assertions" rationalizing consumer decisions, but "is a drama—a mythology, if you will—of handsome people" being driven to "near ecstasy by their good fortune" of possessing advertised goods or services. "The truth or falsity of an advertiser's claim is simply not an issue" because more often than not "no claims are made, except those the viewer projects onto or infers from the drama." Because commercial television is programmed according to ratings, its content is determined by commercial feasibility, not critical acumen. Television in its present state, he says, does not satisfy the conditions for honest intellectual involvement and rational argument.

He repeatedly states that the eighteenth century, the "Age of Reason", was the pinnacle for rational argument. Only in the printed word, he states, could complicated truths be rationally conveyed. Postman gives a striking example: many of the first fifteen U.S. presidents could probably have walked down the street without being recognized by the average citizen, yet all these men would have been quickly known by their written words. However, the reverse is true today. The names of presidents or even famous preachers, lawyers, and scientists call up visual images, typically television images, but few, if any, of their words come to mind. The few that do almost exclusively consist of carefully chosen soundbites. Postman mentions Ronald Reagan, and comments upon Reagan's abilities as an entertainer.


for the hardcore Reader, you can download a pdf format of the book at:



source:













ANOM (sting operation)



The ANOM (also stylized as AN0M or ΛNØM) sting operation (known as Operation Trojan Shield or Operation Ironside) is a collaboration by law enforcement agencies from several countries, running between 2018 and 2021, that intercepted millions of messages sent through the supposedly secure smartphone-based messaging app ANOM. The ANOM service was widely used by criminals, but instead of providing secure communication, it was actually a trojan horse covertly distributed by the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Australian Federal Police (AFP), enabling them to monitor all communications. Through collaboration with other law enforcement agencies worldwide, the operation resulted in the arrest of over 800 suspects allegedly involved in criminal activity, in 16 countries. Among the arrested people were alleged members of Australian-based Italian mafia, Albanian organised crime, outlaw motorcycle clubs, drug syndicates and other organised crime groups.

Background
The shutdown of the Canadian secure messaging company Phantom Secure in March 2018 left international criminals in need of an alternative system for secure communication.[1] Around the same time, the San Diego FBI branch had been working with a person who had been developing a "next-generation" encrypted device for use by criminal networks. The person was facing charges and cooperated with the FBI in exchange for a reduced sentence. The person offered to develop ANOM and then distribute it to criminals through their existing networks.[2][3] The first communication devices with ANOM were offered by this informant to three former distributors of Phantom Secure in October 2018.[4]

The FBI also negotiated with an unnamed third country to set up a communication interception, but based on a court order that allowed passing the information back to the FBI. Since October 2019, ANOM communications have been passed on to the FBI from this third country.[1]

The FBI named the operation "Trojan Shield",[5] and the AFP named it "Ironside".[6] Europol set up the Operational Task Force Greenlight.[7]

source:












Sunday, November 20, 2022

Alan Kay on messaging



Along with some colleagues at PARC, Kay is one of the fathers of the idea of object-oriented programming (OOP), which he named. Some original object-oriented concepts, including the use of the words 'object' and 'class', had been developed for Simula 67 at the Norwegian Computing Center. Kay said:

I'm sorry that I long ago coined the term "objects" for this topic because it gets many people to focus on the lesser idea. The big idea is "messaging".[7]



 ── The big idea is "messaging"
 ── The Japanese have a small word -- ma -- for "that which is in between" 
 ── The key in making great and growable systems is much more to design how its
modules communicate rather than what their internal properties and behaviors should be. 
 ── to allow varying degrees of safe interoperability between these ideas.

prototypes vs classes was: Re: Sun's HotSpot
Alan Kay alank at wdi.disney.com
Sat Oct 10 04:40:35 UTC 1998
Previous message: prototypes vs classes was: Re: Sun's HotSpot
Next message: prototypes vs classes
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]
Folks --

Just a gentle reminder that I took some pains at the last OOPSLA to try to
remind everyone that Smalltalk is not only NOT its syntax or the class
library, it is not even about classes. I'm sorry that I long ago coined the
term "objects" for this topic because it gets many people to focus on the
lesser idea.

The big idea is "messaging" -- that is what the kernal of Smalltalk/Squeak
is all about (and it's something that was never quite completed in our
Xerox PARC phase). The Japanese have a small word -- ma -- for "that which
is in between" -- perhaps the nearest English equivalent is "interstitial".
The key in making great and growable systems is much more to design how its
modules communicate rather than what their internal properties and
behaviors should be. Think of the internet -- to live, it (a) has to allow
many different kinds of ideas and realizations that are beyond any single
standard and (b) to allow varying degrees of safe interoperability between
these ideas.

If you focus on just messaging -- and realize that a good metasystem can
late bind the various 2nd level architectures used in objects -- then much
of the language-, UI-, and OS based discussions on this thread are really
quite moot. This was why I complained at the last OOPSLA that -- whereas at
PARC we changed Smalltalk constantly, treating it always as a work in
progress -- when ST hit the larger world, it was pretty much taken as
"something just to be learned", as though it were Pascal or Algol.
Smalltalk-80 never really was mutated into the next better versions of OOP.
Given the current low state of programming in general, I think this is a
real mistake.

I think I recall also pointing out that it is vitally important not just to
have a complete metasystem, but to have fences that help guard the crossing
of metaboundaries. One of the simplest of these was one of the motivations
for my original excursions in the late sixties: the realization that
assignments are a metalevel change from functions, and therefore should not
be dealt with at the same level -- this was one of the motivations to
encapsulate these kinds of state changes, and not let them be done willy
nilly. I would say that a system that allowed other metathings to be done
in the ordinary course of programming (like changing what inheritance
means, or what is an instance) is a bad design. (I believe that systems
should allow these things, but the design should be such that there are
clear fences that have to be crossed when serious extensions are made.)

I would suggest that more progress could be made if the smart and talented
Squeak list would think more about what the next step in metaprogramming
should be -- how can we get great power, parsimony, AND security of meaning?

Cheers to all,

Alan

source:

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Friday, November 18, 2022

Fred Brooks (April 19, 1931 – November 17, 2022)

 today I note of the passing of Fred Brooks

ashes to ashes, dust to dust, what the earth giveth, the earth taketh away, 

according to en.wikipedia.org entry on Fred Brooks
Brooks died on November 17, 2022, at the age of 91.[24][25]

https://mastodon.lawprofs.org/@SteveBellovin/109362211705242308

Steve Bellovin
@SteveBellovin@mastodon.lawprofs.org
Sad news from UNC Chapel Hill Computer Science — Fred P. Brooks, the founder and long-time chair of the department (and a major influence on my professional outlook) passed away a few hours ago.

Nov 17, 2022, 17:28 ·

For those of you (us) who took computer science, you would've read the book, The Mythical-Man Month: essays on software engineering.  He is one of my favorite writer (author).  He writing is very read able (access able).  In my opinion, ... 
We shall keep him in our memory and stories, indeed.  

(Did not even know he was still around, completely off my RADAR)

If you want to see a picture of him, you can visit https://www.cs.unc.edu/~brooks/
The page is still up, maybe they will keep it there for awhile.  

Another passing of computer science giant. 


Brooks’ law

“Adding manpower to a late project makes it later.”

Brooks’ law comes from Fred Brooks’ 1975 book The Mythical Man Month. It deals with the assumption that team members and months needed are interchangeable.

This is not the case — particularly in software development (or any product development, for that matter). Why? Because of the time it takes to bring and keep people up to [speed] with the project.


Brook’s Law
Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.

Named after Fred Brooks, aka, Mr. Mythical Man Month. 
The corollary to this principle is the following…

The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter how many women are assigned.


https://news.slashdot.org/story/22/11/18/1352233/fred-brooks-has-died

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks's_law

https://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/2012/11/102658255-05-01-acc.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Brooks

Fred Brooks
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Frederick Brooks" redirects here. For other people, see Frederick Brooks (disambiguation).
Fred Brooks
Fred Brooks.jpg
2007 photo
Born Frederick Phillips Brooks Jr.
April 19, 1931
Durham, North Carolina, US
Died November 17, 2022 (aged 91)

Known for OS/360
The Mythical Man-Month[1]
Spouse Nancy Greenwood Brooks
Children Kenneth, Roger, Barbara

Doctoral advisor Howard Aiken[3]
Doctoral students Andrew S. Glassner

Website www.cs.unc.edu/~brooks

Frederick Phillips Brooks Jr. (April 19, 1931 – November 17, 2022) was an American computer architect, software engineer, and computer scientist, best known for managing the development of IBM's System/360 family of computers and the OS/360 software support package, then later writing candidly about the process in his seminal book The Mythical Man-Month 
   ____________________________________

 ── the worst decision is documented in The Mythical Man Month
 ── that was the decision to take the architecture away from the architecture group and give it to the operating system manager. 
 ── Marty Belsky the architecture manager said, “If you leave it with me, it’ll be the same amount late, it will cost the same, but it’ll be right” and he was right and I was wrong
 ── that was a multimillion dollar mistake.

Booch: So in that process, sort of a threefold question: what was the best decision you made? What is the worst decision you made? And I’ll come back to the third one. 

Brooks: Well the worst decision is documented in The Mythical Man Month and that was the decision to take the architecture away from the architecture group and give it to the operating system manager. As I document there he said, “It’ll be so much late and it’ll cost so much” and Marty Belsky the architecture manager said, “If you leave it with me, it’ll be the same amount late, it will cost the same, but it’ll be right” and he was right and I was wrong and that was a multimillion dollar mistake.
 
Booch: Right. 
Brooks: The best decision in the whole program was certainly the eight-bit byte. The best decision in the operating system, well, the assembly language, surprisingly enough, posed a lot of technical problems because there were two entirely different schools of thought had grown up in the scientific and the commercial sides. On the commercial side, the assembly language served as a platform on which high priests in any different corporation wrote macros and the troops programmed in the macro language and so Eastman Kodak was a proponent of this and had done a really good job of that and various others. In the scientific community, the scientists would write their own macros and they programmed in assembly language, macro enhanced. And so the question of how to resolve all this led me into technical thickets, the thickest technical thickets I got into in the operating system. The other set of technical decisions I made had to do with PL/I and the whole question of do we use equal for assignment following the Fortran tradition or do we use a colon-equal [:=] kind of thing? But the more serious question is do we do independent evaluation of expressions so that you can factor out common sub-expressions?

source:
Oral History of Fred Brooks 
Interviewed by:  Grady Booch 
Edited by: Dag Spicer 
Recorded: September 16, 2007 
Cambridge, United Kingdom 
CHM Reference number: X4146.2008 
© 2007 Computer History Museum
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Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Yuval Noah Harari

 Yuval Noah Harari

58:47
Yuval Noah Harari: "21 Lessons for the 21st Century" | Talks at Google
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw9P_ZXWDJU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw9P_ZXWDJU
Talks at Google
Published on Oct 11, 2018

18:44   it all depends on
18:47   the definitions I mean there are many
18:49   kinds of gods and and people understand
18:52   very different things by the word
18:54   religion, if you think about God, so
18:58   usually people have very two extremely
19:01   different gods in mind, when they say the
19:03   word God, one God is the cosmic mystery,
19:08   we don't understand why there is
19:10   something rather than nothing, why the
19:13   Big Bang happened
19:14   what is human consciousness, there are
19:16   many things we don't understand about
19:17   the world, and some people choose to call
19:20   this mysteries by the name of God; God is
19:24   the reason there is something rather
19:26   than nothing, God is behind human
19:29   consciousness but the most
19:31   characteristic thing of that God is that
19:34   we know absolutely nothing about him/her
19:38   it they, there is nothing concrete,
19:42   it's a mystery and this is
19:45   kind of the god we talk about when late
19:48   at night in the desert we sit around the
19:50   campfire and we think about the meaning
19:52   of life, that's one kind of God I have no
19:54   problem at all with this god I like it
19:56   very much; then there is another God which is the

20:01   petty law Giver, the chief characteristic
20:01   petty low Giver, the chief characteristic

20:05   of this God we know a lot of extremely
20:08   concrete things about that God, we know
20:11   what he thinks about female dress code,
20:14   what kind of dresses he likes women to
20:18   wear, we know what he thinks about
20:20   sexuality, we know what he thinks about
20:23   food, about politics, and like these tiny
20:27   little things, and this is the God people
20:30   talk about when they stand around
20:34   burning a heretic; will burn you because
20:38   you did something that this God we know
20:40   everything about this God, and he didn't
20:42   it doesn't like it that you do this so
20:43   we burn you;

17:08
"Take a human being, cut him open, look inside, and you will find no human rights there."
Why humans run the world | Yuval Noah Harari
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzj7Wg4DAbs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzj7Wg4DAbs
TED
Published on Jul 24, 2015 

7:30
Emergence – How Stupid Things Become Smart Together
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16W7c0mb-rE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16W7c0mb-rE
Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell
Published on Nov 16, 2017

Sugar is a greater danger than gunpowder, says ‘Sapiens’ author Yuval Noah Harari
Sweet talk
There was a time when war was the only answer. But since 1945 (the end of the Second World War), due to the collective effort of great powers, there have been no major battles. “For the first time in history, you are your worst enemies. Fewer people died in 2017 due to UN violence than due to obesity, car accidents and suicides,” he said. “Statistically, you have a greater chance of killing yourself than any soldier or terrorist. Sugar is a greater danger than gunpowder. You are more likely to die from drinking too much cola than being blown up by al-Qaeda. And this is very good news.”

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63574089.cms



11:33
Sugar: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MepXBJjsNxs
LastWeekTonight
Published on Oct 26, 2014
Sugar. It's in everything!
Is it good for us? Well, the sugar industry thinks so.


1:00:58
Yuval Noah Harari In Conversation with Christine Lagarde
SPR futurist series
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5Y2CwCsnbA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5Y2CwCsnbA
Yuval Noah Harari
Published on Sep 13, 2018
03:30   Strategy and Policy Review [SPR] department of the IMF.
03:33   It gives everybody a chance to be inspired
03:36   by broader thinkers than just us.
        ...  ...  ...
29:36   - Yeah, I mean, I think that you need to differentiate
29:38   between saying that a story is not true
29:41   and saying that a story is harmful or not effective.
29:45   To get a lot of people to cooperate, you need to convince
29:48   them to believe in a shared story.
29:52   Now sometimes the story can be completely fictional
29:55   and it still works.
        ...  ...  ...
30:03   If you want to get 22 people to play football,
30:06   you need for all of them to agree on a common story
30:09   for what football is, what are the rules,
30:11   what are the goals, what is allowed, what is not allowed.
30:14   And, there is nothing wrong with that.
30:16   Everybody know that we invented the rules.
30:19   It's completely fictional.
30:20   It's not the laws of physics, or the laws of biology
30:23   that mandate these rules.
30:25   And as long as it goes it's fine, until somebody
30:29   forgets that this is just a story that we invented,
30:32   and you have a football hooligans starting
30:34   to beat or kill somebody because of a football game.
30:37   And then to remind this person, look, it's just a story
30:40   we invented.
        ...  ...  ...
57:45   Go back 100 years to 1918, European's were killing
57:49   each other by the million over questions of nationality.
57:53   Now today with all the talk about the rise of nationalism
57:56   in Europe, just count the bodies.
57:59   A good way, it's not the only way, but a good way
58:02   to assess the power of an idea is to do a body count.
58:06   And one of the amazing things for me is as an historian
58:09   watching events, I'm not speaking specifically
58:12   about Europe, is how few people are willing
58:15   to kill or be killed for nationalism.
58:19   Which is a wonderful development, don't get me wrong.
58:23   A century or two ago, to decide the question,
58:25   like whether Britain should be part
58:27   of the European Union or an allegedly independent
58:33   country, you would need a big war
58:36   with millions of people being killed and injured
58:38   and so forth.
58:40   As far as I know, in Brexit, only one person lost
58:43   their life, a British MP who was murdered
58:46   by some fanatic.
58:48   And the rest of the people just followed whatever
58:50   the referendum said.
58:52   And it's the same with the Scottish referendum.
58:55   In past centuries, if Scotland wanted to be independent
58:57   of London and they wanted to be independent
59:00   a couple of times, they needed to raise an army
59:03   and to confront the armies that London would send
59:06   from the south to burn Edinburgh down.
59:09   Now they just got a referendum and almost everybody
59:12   just accept the results.
59:14   Very few people are willing to actually be killed
59:18   or to kill for this, and this is a very good development.
        ...  ...  ...
59:33   but what is to me, quite clear, is that all the major
59:37   problems of the world today are global problems.
59:41   The three biggest problems we face are nuclear war,
59:44   climate change and technological disruption.
59:47   And none of these problems can be solved on the level
59:51   of a single nation.
59:52   You just can't solve climate change
59:55   or regulate AI on the level of a single nation.
59:58   So, the only solution to these global problems,
60:02   is greater global cooperation.
60:05   Whether we actually see greater global cooperation,
60:08   I don't know.
60:09   It's the wise thing to do, but we should never
60:13   underestimate human stupidity.
([ won’t stop us from making the same old mistakes in new ways ])
60:15   (laughter)
60:18   It's one of the most powerful forces in history.
60:21   (laughter increases)
60:24   Is this upbeat enough?
60:25   (laughter and applause)
60:32   - You were terrific, thank you.


1:17:56
Yuval Noah Harari in conversation with RUSI Chairman, Lord Hague of Richmond
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYqonHGLhGo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYqonHGLhGo
Yuval Noah Harari
Published on Nov 18, 2018
23:39      but just remind everybody what happened on the 7th
https://eureka.eu.com/innovation/deep-mind-chess/
https://deepmind.com/blog/alphazero-shedding-new-light-grand-games-chess-shogi-and-go/
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/dec/07/alphazero-google-deepmind-ai-beats-champion-program-teaching-itself-to-play-four-hours
23:42      when the AlphaGo Zero program started to play chess.
“It is arguable that AlphaZero is the second paradigm shift in chess computing. The first came in 1997, when Garry Kasparov lost to IBM’s Deep Blue.” (March 20, 2018, https://eureka.eu.com/innovation/deep-mind-chess/ )
23:46      - Yes, so, and almost every month or so
23:49   we hear about a new achievement of artificial intelligence.
23:54   So one of the latest headlines
23:56   was when a new software for playing chess
24:02   defeated the previous computer software for playing chess.
24:06   And it maybe doesn't sound like news
24:08   because it has been 20 years since a computer program
24:11   defeated the human chess master of the world,
24:14   Garry Kasparov, but what was amazing about the new software
24:18   is that it taught itself how to play chess.
24:23   It started basically from zero.
24:25   They just programmed it the basic rules of the game
24:28   and didn't teach it anything about strategy, about moves.
24:33   It didn't have any access to previous games,
24:37   to the centuries-old bank of knowledge about playing chess.
24:45   It just played the games itself
24:47   and taught itself chess and strategies and so forth
24:51   and went on to defeat the previous computer world champion.
24:56   But the most amazing thing is how long it took it
24:59   to reach from zero knowledge to complete mastery,
25:04   to be the top of the world.
25:06   Four hours, that's it. (audience laughing)
25:09   So it's centuries of thousands of years
25:13   of humans playing chess and passing their knowledge
25:15   to the computers and that's it, four hours.
25:18    So it's still a long way from playing chess
25:23   to taking over far more complicated tasks in the real world
25:28       but the writing is really on the wall.
25:32   And as you say, I mean I don't think we'll reach a point
25:35   when we have computer overlords.
25:38   The more scary, realistic scenario
25:42   is that we might soon reach a point when,
25:46   I mean all the people in power, all the powerful positions
25:51   are still occupied by human beings, not by computers.
25:55   You still have a prime minister.
25:57   You still have a CEO.
25:59   But the prime minister chooses from a menu written by AI.
26:04   For instance, the financial system is likely to become
26:07   so complicated within the next 20 or 30 years
26:11   and so fast-moving that no human being.
        ...  ...  ...
08:44   from what some nationalists are thinking
08:47   is that they think in terms of
08:49   like a network of friendly fortresses
08:53   that you will have each country building walls
08:57   and digging moats around itself
09:00   to defend its unique identity,
09:02   its unique culture, its unique ethnicity.
09:06   But the different countries will still be able to
09:09   cooperate peacefully to some extent.
09:12   To trade it will not be a return to the jungle
09:15   of everybody against everybody else.
09:18   But the problem with this vision of the world
09:21   as a network of friendly fortresses,
09:23   actually there are two problems.
09:25   The first problem is that fortresses
09:27   don't tend to be friendly, certainly not in the long run.
09:32   Each fortress naturally wants a bit more security
09:37   and sometimes territory and certainly prosperity to itself
09:41   even at the price of what the other fortresses want
09:45   and without some global values and global organizations
09:48   and so forth you can't reach an agreement.
09:51   And the idea of friendly fortresses very quickly turns
09:56   into warlike fortresses.
09:58   The other problem which is a new problem
10:01   is that the world now has three major challenges
10:06   which are global in nature and simply cannot be solved
10:11   or dealt with on the level of a single fortress
10:15   within the walls of a single fortress.
10:17   These are nuclear war, climate change,
10:20   and technological disruption, especially the rise of
10:22   artificial intelligence and bioengineering.
10:25   And it should be obvious, I think, to everybody
10:28   that you can't stop nuclear war
10:30   just within the walls of one fortress,
10:32   you can't prevent climate change
10:34   just within the walls of one fortress,
10:37   and you cannot regulate AI and bioengineering
10:40   just in  a single nation
10:42   because you don't have control
10:45   over scientists and engineers in other countries
10:48   and nobody would like to stay behind
10:52   and just restrict our own development
10:55   if the other fortresses are not doing the same thing. 
         ...  ...  ... 


41:00
The 2 Most Important Skills For the Rest Of Your Life | Yuval Noah Harari on Impact Theory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6tMLAjPVyo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6tMLAjPVyo
Tom Bilyeu
Published on Nov 13, 2018
15:44   understand in this regard is that
15:46   what music and most of art plays on in
15:51   the end is the human biochemical system
15:53   at least according to the dominant view
15:57   of art in the modern Western world we
15:59   had different views in different
16:00   cultures but in the modern Western world
16:02   the idea of art is that art is above all
16:06   about inspiring human emotions it
16:10   doesn't necessarily have to be joy great
16:13   art can inspire also sadness can can
16:17   inspire a anger can inspire fear it can
16:20    be a whole palette of emotional states
16:23   but our is about inspiring human
16:26   emotions so the instrument artists play
16:30     on and whether it's musicians or poets
16:33     or movie makers they're actually playing
16:37     on the homosapiens biochemical system
16:39   and we might reach a point quite soon
16:43   when an algorithm knows this instrument
16:47   better than any human artist a movie or
16:50   a poem or a song that will not move you
16:56   that will not inspire you might inspire
16:58   me and something that will inspire me in
17:01   one situation might not inspire me in
17:03   another situation and as time goes on
17:06   and the algorithm gathers more and more
17:09   data about me it will become more and
17:11   more accurate in reading my biochemical
17:15   system and knowing how to play on it as
17:18   if it was a piano like okay you want joy
17:20   I press this button and out comes the
17:23   perfect song the only song in the world
17:26   that can actually make me joyful right
17:29   now
          ...  ...  ...
19:49   the biggest battles in the 21st century
19:52   is likely to be between privacy and health
19:56   and I guess that health is going to win
20:00   most people will be willing to give up a
20:03   very significant amount of privacy in
20:06   exchange for far better health care
          ...  ...  ...
20:09   we do need to try and enjoy both worlds
20:12   to create a system that give us a very
20:16   good health care but without
20:18   compromising our privacy
20:20   keeping there yes you can use the data
20:21   to tell me that there is a problem and
20:24   then we should do this order to solve it
20:26   but I don't want this data to be used
20:29   for other purposes without my knowing it
20:31   whether we can reach such a balance and
20:34   like you know have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too
20:37   that that's a big political question
         ...  ...  ...  

source:
      https://futureforecasting2.blogspot.com/2019/03/

fear greed loss

 Sebastian Mallaby., More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite, 2010.   

fear is a stronger emotion than greed, 

p.461
18.  Jones interview.  Jones adds, “From a trading perspective, fear is a much stronger emotion than greed, which is why things go down twice as fast as they go up. And that's also just the law of nature. How long does it take for a tree to grow, and how quickly can you burn it down? It's much easier to destroy things than to build them up. So from a trading perspective, the short side is always a beautiful place to be because quite often when you get paid, you get paid in vertical no-pain type of moves.”

Sebastian Mallaby., More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite, 2010.   
   ____________________________________
Amar Bose, MIT professor & co-founder of Bose Laboratory: 

  Research by definition if it's research, you don't know whether it works or not; if you know the idea [is] going to work, its engineering, develope it;  research is at the heart of what bring out better products;  fear, fear of the unknown; without probing the unknown, there is no possibility for progress;  the unknown could be better (benefit); could be worse (down side);  if we know it could be better, there would be no fear. 

Amar Bose of Bose Laboratories: Bose speakers 

source: ???
   ____________________________________

 ── greed, fear, fear of loss 

44:12  fear of loss is the number one driving
make them think about thing that they do not want to have happen
a lot of psychologists believe the fear of loss is the number one thing that drives our decisions
either one or two camps
we make every decision based on either fear or love
fear or fear of loss are a big determinant of how people think

44:21  we make every decision based on either fear or love.
44:25  Others say you make your decision based on fear of loss.
44:29  Whichever of those two areas that you fall into,
44:33  the bottom line is fear and fear of loss
44:35  are a big determinant in how people think.

Never Split the Difference | Chris Voss | Talks at Google
               https://youtu.be/guZa7mQV1l0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guZa7mQV1l0

source: 
Never Split the Difference | Chris Voss | Talks at Google
https://youtu.be/guZa7mQV1l0
https://youtu.be/guZa7mQV1l0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guZa7mQV1l0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guZa7mQV1l0
50:43
May 27, 2016
Everything we’ve previously been taught about negotiation is wrong: people are not rational; there is no such thing as ‘fair’; compromise is the worst thing you can do; the real art of negotiation lies in mastering the intricacies of No, not Yes. These surprising tactics—which radically diverge from conventional negotiating strategy—weren’t cooked up in a classroom, but are the field-tested tools FBI agents used to talk criminals and hostage-takers around the world into (or out of) just about any scenario you can imagine. 

In NEVER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It, former FBI lead international kidnapping negotiator Chris Voss breaks down these strategies so that anyone can use them in the workplace, in business, or at home.

This talk was moderated by Mairin Chesney.

a moment can be three seconds (3 sec)
it's okay to say no
yes is committment
no is protection (feel protected, feel safe)
positive frame of mind (positive frame of mind made you smart, in comparison with tunnel vision)
is now a bad time to talk? (get a schedule time to talk)
that's right (get the other person to say, this, summarized the situation how the other person see things) 
Talh Raz, 
three basic approach to conflict: fight, flight, or make friend
the deal is secondary 
most people fall in one of three camps 
 1. I want to know, you know, what I mean (assertive )
 2. if we don't make a deal that's fine, they want to maintain the relationship, I like you and you like me
 3. analytical (highly pracmatic), as long as they get to share their ... with you, they are happy
you need all three camps:  you need to be able to assert your best position; you need to be able to get along with people (relationship)(you are okay, I am okay); you need to be able to analyze 
ask the right person, do what they tell you to do (volunteer for suicide hotline), but you've to ask the right person, 
FBI hostage negotiation school
Harvard law school negotiation course 
same techniques, different stakes, basically, that means I had better stories 
hostage negotiation does apply to business and personal negotiation
what is the most effective high-value trade?
everybody has patterns
you are worry about loosing something
Getting to Yes
tell me why you want this? (...??)
empathy is the tool for negotiation effectiveness 
getting to the point where the other is comfortable sharing information
until you said it, I didn't know it was true  
in the eye of the beholder 
44:02
44:12  fear of loss is the number one driving
a lot of psychologists believe the fear of loss is the number one thing that drives our decisions
either one or two camps
we make every decision based on either fear or love
fear or fear of loss are a big determinant of how people think
most people do not like to be laugh at   
   ____________________________________

  • Drive out fear, so that everyone may work effectively .... (See Ch. 3 of Out of the Crisis)

source:
   ____________________________________

  • Per Dr. Deming; nobody motivates anyone, except through fear

source:

 Peter Senge on the Creation of a Post-Industrial Theory and Practice of Education
March 26, 2019

Posted In: Deming Philosophy, Deming Today, Education, Psychology

Post by Bill Bellows, Deputy Director, The Deming Institute

On April 16-18, 1999, The Deming Institute hosted its annual spring conference in Tacoma, Washington, featuring keynotes from Russell Ackoff, Jamshid Gharajedaghi, and Tom Johnson.  I attended at the end of a family vacation, a mini-van roadtrip from our home in southern California, with earlier stops at Yosemite, the redwoods in northern California, and Portland.   From Tacoma, we headed to our last stop, San Francisco, where the timing worked well for me to attend a second conference, “Teaching for Intelligence,” with Peter Senge, author of The Fifth Discipline, as the opening keynote speaker.   The conference drew an audience of at least 500 in the auditorium with Peter, with several hundred more, including me, in an overflow room.

In this 80-minute lecture, which has recently been posted on YouTube, with Peter’s approval, by the Academy for Systems Change, he shared his reflections on ongoing efforts to transform education systems across the United States, offering an extensive series of parallels with his wide-ranging personal experiences with the visible and invisible obstacles facing business transformations.

  Peter Senge
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fln7GnBNWmo
  80 minute
  academy for systems change

  youtube.com
  Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fln7GnBNWmo
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fln7GnBNWmo
  academy for systems change
  Mar 7, 2019
  1:17:49
  1999 teaching for intelligence conference


Having attended the lecture and then re-experience it countless times since then, here are highlights of a most remarkable and timeless session which ends with Peter offering a tribute to Dr. Deming:

  • Peter spends most of his time working in businesses……trying to foster a degree of collaboration….trying to sustain deep and profound change….

  • Carl Rogers, “that which is most personal is most universal”

  • The system is out there….

  • What can we do…working against this massive thing called the system?

  • No one can ever show you the system…can you show it to me?

  • Feel the enormous forces pulling things back to where they used to be

  • There is a real simple notion of system which is kind of the cornerstone of what I’ve learned about the subject of systemic change…and that is when we say the word the system, what we really are talking about, although we usually do not know how to talk about it very rigorously, is a pattern of interdependency that we enact.    There is no system.   It’s purely an abstraction.   But, there are patterns of interdependency and they are created every day, every hour, every minute, through our thinking and through our actions.

  • Reflections on my experiences in the past 25 years, primarily in the world of business

  • Perhaps there some interesting implications

  • Creation of a post-industrial theory and practice of education

  • 20 to 25 years of efforts to transform the systemic nature of business operations…

  • Organizing around a few simple ideas…the world is a fragmented set of pieces…the drive to reinforce individualism…the “you” is an isolated individual.

  • Comments from Joseph, a South African worker, “they do not make me a person”

  • A human being, a “you,” only exists in relationships

  • The Zulu greeting, “hello,” meaning, “I see you”

  • Hard to know what fish talk about, but you can be damn sure it isn’t water.   It’s the water we live in.

  • Edgar Schein, “Culture are the assumptions we cannot see”

  • Three legs of the stool – reflectiveness, aspiration, and understanding complexity

  • Dr. Deming used to have a very simple way of saying this…our prevailing system of management has destroyed our people

  • Dr. Deming, on “Quality Management” practices in education… “You have no idea that you are attempting to apply for the revitalization of America’s education system, the system of management which has destroyed American enterprise”

  • Quote from Dr. Deming on the back jacket of first printing of The Fifth Discipline; “Our prevailing system of management has destroyed our people.  The destruction starts with toddlers.   Gold stars.  Grades in school.  A prize for the best Halloween costume.  The destruction continues on up through universities and into work, where people are ranked.  Rewards for the one at the top, punishment for one at the bottom.  Management by Objective, incentive pay, business plans cause further loss, unknown and unknowable.

  • Learned from Dr. Deming; school and work are the same institution

  • We have no clue about what it actually means to try to bring about truly systemic or deep or profound change

  • All of our efforts are on the surface

  • It’s a common experience, we all went to the same school

  • Did you know about learning before you went to school?

  • Dr. Deming, “human beings are born with intrinsic motivation and joy in learning”

  • The drive to learn, the most fundamental drive in the human species is the drive to learn

  • We come into the world engaged in learning

  • What did we learn about learning in school?

  • School is about performing for someone else’s approval

  • What did we learn as kids in school about answers?

  • How do we actually learn?  By making mistakes.

  • We learn that learning is about getting right answers

  • Per Dr. Deming; the relationship between the student and the teacher is identically the same relationship as between the subordinate and the boss

  • Per Dr. Deming; nobody motivates anyone, except through fear

  • The prevailing system of management is not about learning, it’s about control; an industrial age notion of control; someone has to be in control

  • Most business corporations are basically pouring all the energy they can into sustaining, strengthening, tightening up, becoming yet more able to operate in the industrial mode…..and there are exceptions  (VISA, Toyota, and Interface (Carpets) will be highlighted)

  • Within Toyota there are no standardized measures for cost control

  • Dr. Deming’s photo hangs in the lobby of Toyota’s corporate headquarters in Japan,

  • Dr. Deming “Our system of organizing and managing in the industrial age has destroyed our people”

  • It has nothing to do with school.   It has nothing to do with business.  It has to do with a common set of assumptions and practices which are everywhere.

  • Why do companies reorganize so much?

  • Learners want to learn

  • No assessing, no learning

  • A tough challenge we face, but there’s some interesting stuff going on

  • The traditional system is us, it’s not them, it’s all the assumptions we’ve never examined

  • Why is it that industrial age systems have so much in common?  Is it a big organized effort?

  • The machine age and the aspiration for uniformity

  • Schools patterned after an assembly line

  • People do not learn at the same speed

  • We substitute speed of reasoning for understanding

  • Might it not be that we are caught up in a myth, a kind of set of assumptions, a way of seeing the world, which has given great coherence and has been very successful?   It’s only small problem is that it’s destroying our people and destroying our environment.

  • The measure is secondary to the learning

  • Creating measures and the phenomenon itself are two different features

  • David Bohm, “thought shapes reality”

  • The whole morning is a tribute to Deming

Enjoy it, again and again!

I have shared this video with countless seminar and workshop audiences, most often associated with introducing the Deming Philosophy.    Once, with Tom Johnson in the room, with fellow seminar attendees only knowing him as Tom Johnson, not “the” Tom Johnson as highly regarded by Peter in the video.   According to one fellow co-worker, the ensuing remarks from Tom, author of Profit Beyond Measure, were “cosmic.”   In other settings, I have also shared it with neighbors.    For those who are aware of Dr. Deming’s Philosophy, this video can be immensely inspiring.    I have seen it grab the attention of wide-ranging audiences, from individual contributors to senior executives, as the message is so powerful, including filled with hope.    Don’t be surprised to witness the ending leaving a few in tears.   Be prepared!   However, as a note of caution, I have shared it with groups who are unaware of the Deming Philosophy, without offering any initial explanation of the Deming Philosophy.  In such a setting, the message can be depressing, as it opens viewers to the prevailing system of management as it operates in schools.   For such audiences, being exposed to the prospects of harshness within this system, as Peter does so well, this video may trigger a feeling of helplessness.    Be prepared to share that there is great hope when leaders offer their guidance.     Read about the efforts of educators in our blogs and podcasts to learn how they are working to transform education systems through the Deming Philosophy.

source:
        https://deming.org/peter-senge-on-the-creation-of-a-post-industrial-theory-and-practice-of-education/  
   ____________________________________
Bankruptcy court

"For the love of money is the root of
 all kinds of evil for which some have
 strayed from their faith and in their
 greediness have pierced themselves 
 through with many sorrows."
 
 1 Timothy 6:9-10, The Holy Bible


"So if we have enough food and clothing,
 let us be content.
 But people who long to be rich fall
 into temptation and are trapped by 
 many foolish and harmful desires that
 plunge them into ruin and destruction.
 For the love of money is at the root
 of all kinds of evil.  And some people,
 craving money, have wandered from the
 faith and pierced themselves with many
 sorrows."
 1 Timothy 6:8-10, The Holy Bible
   ____________________________________
 ── sad financial fate of innumerable earlier entrepreneurs who ended up in the bankruptcy courts because of their premature entrepreneurial activities.
 ── trail-blazers generally go bankrupt, and only those who later buy the buildings, machinery, etc., at a cheaper price, make money out of it” (Karl Marx, Capital [Foreign languages publishing house, moscow, 1959], vol. III, p. 103).

Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982
p.107
The possible wisdom of waiting is reinforced by observations, abundantly available to all would-be entrepreneurs, concerning the sad financial fate of innumerable earlier entrepreneurs who ended up in the bankruptcy courts because of their premature entrepreneurial activities.5

p.107
 5  Marx long ago called attention to “the far greater cost of operating an establishment based on a new invention as compared to later establishments arising ex suis ossibus.  This is so very true that the trail-blazers generally go bankrupt, and only those who later buy the buildings, machinery, etc., at a cheaper price, make money out of it” (Karl Marx, Capital [Foreign languages publishing house, moscow, 1959], vol. III, p. 103).
He also called attention to the rapid improvements in the productivity of machinery in its early stages as well as the sharp reduction in the cost of its production.  
“When machine is first introduced into an industry, new methods of reproducing it more cheaply follow blow by blow, and so do improvements, that not only affect individual parts and details on the machine, but its entire build” (Karl Marx, Capital [Modern library edition, new york, no date], vol. I, p. 442). 
In a footnote on that page, Marx cites approvingly Babbage's statement: “It has been estimated, roughly, that the first individual of a newly invented machine will cost about five times as much as the construction of the second.”
For discussion of related problems with respect to the growth of nations, see Ed Ames and Nathan Rosenberg, “Changing technological leadership and economic growth”, Economic journal, march 1963.

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )
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