<---------------------------------------------------------------------------->
Per Bak, How nature works, 1996 [ ]
p.197
Kai and Maya studied the situation in which there were only very rare random fluctuations initiating traffic jams. Interestingly, they point out that technological advancements such as cruise control or radar-based driving support would tend to reduce the fluctuations around maximum speed, and thus increase the range of validity of their results. One unintended consequence of these flow control technologies is that, if they work, they would in fact push the traffic system closer to its underlying critical point, thereby making prediction, planning, and control more difficult, in sharp contrast to the original intentions. Note the analogy with attempts to regulate economy (or sandpiles). Self-organized criticality [SOC] is a law of nature for which there is no dispensation.
( Bak, P. (Per), 1947-, How nature works : the science of self-organized criticality / Per Bak., 1. critical phenomena (physics), 2. complexity (philosophy), 3. physics--philosophy., QC173.4.C74B34 1996, 003'.7--dc20, 1996, )
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• the 4th and the last threshold I want to talk about is self-organized critical state (threshold):
── self-organized critical state, or, self-organized criticality is a fancy phrase for nothing surprising is happening, nothing new, everything is the same, and then the event would go critical (non-linear), like (avalanches) (mudslide) (earthquake) (flash flood) (volcanoes eruption) or (forest fire)
── (avalanches)
── (mudslide)
── (earthquake)
── (flash flood)
── (flood)
── (erosion)
── (volcanoes eruption)
── (forest fire)
── (lighting)
── self-organized critical state (avalanches) (mudslide) (earthquake) (flash flood) (volcanoes eruption) (forest fire) [(threshold)]
── the example is a sand pile game, as you continually add sand to the pile, at first the sand is piling up, getting bigger and bigger, and as the pile get big, there would be a small sand slide now and again; however, according to self-organized critical state, as we add more and more sand to the pile, at some future state, there will be a big avalanche of sand slide; and according to Per Bak, the author of How nature works : the science of self-organized criticality, this pattern can be seen in natural events, and other human related events.
── self-organized critical state is a use case explanation for a (non-linear) world.
── Bak, P. (Per), 1947-
How nature works : the science of self-organized criticality / Per Bak.
1. critical phenomena (physics)
2. complexity (philosophy)
3. physics--philosophy.
── “All great deeds and all great thoughts”, Albert Camus once wrote, “have ridiculous beginnings.”17
── And so it was in 1987 when physicists Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Weisenfeld began playing this sandpile game in an office at Brookhaven National Laboratory, in New York State. As it turns out, this seemingly trival game lies behind the discovery of the widespread importance of the CRITICAL STATE--the discovery that can help us to make sense of upheavals. , p.18, Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, 2001.
── you have a glass with a heavy bottom (low center of gravity); initially, you give the glass a slight tap at the top; nothing; progressively and repeatedly you push the glass, each time you apply slightly more force until you have applied just enough force to tip the glass over; when you have applied enough force to tip glass over, the glass tipping over is a non-linear behavior (??); to make the situation more drammatic you can have a cup of hot coffee, and you are wear a white dress with a delicate fabric; ...
── if you know that there is a traffic jam at the bridge you are going cross that day (or everyday during that time) (and you need to get in line like everyone else to get through the botton neck) (for many working people everyone is asked to show up at work at a certain time each day in the morning) (and this behavior is repeated everyday at around the same time period each morning and afternoon, and this has become a normalized, then ... like the daily traffic jam has been normalized), the traffic jam is a bottle neck, a critical point in project management (PM), until the the flow starts, the bottle neck (the traffic jam), or, you are able to somehow time your arrival right when the flow starts, then getting out of the house early does not help you to get through the bottle neck; as a matter-of-fact, if you and everyone else showed up at the same time, then all the people there would be contributing to the bottle neck; in this situation (self-organized critical (soc) state), by showing up, you are contributing to the problem; having a bridge is important, building the bridge is important, funding and financing the bridge is important, designing and constructing the bridge so that it does not fall down unless it is supposed to is important; however, that same bridge can also become a parking lot, an absolute grid locked, a bottle neck, a traffic jam, if everyone uses the bridge at the same time, exceeding the limited capacity of the bridge; that same bridge can also become a death trap, given the proper environmental context and situation; in a way, you can view the bridge as a sort of a common; you can also view the bridge from an operation research perspective; you can also view the bridge from a system dynamics (stock-level, flow-rate) perspective; you can also view the bridge as simply a bridge, no more, no less; it is what it is; a bridge is a bridge, is a bridge, is a bridge; ...
──
── Cars were zipping about too fast for the small and badly paved parking lot, each driver trying to evade the Friday rush that each was, of course, helping to create., Tom Clancy, Without Remorse, 1993 (paperback) (fiction), p.12
── Cars were zipping about too fast for the bridge, which was about to become a parking lot, each driver trying to evade the ... rush that each was, of course, helping to create., Tom Clancy, Without Remorse, 1993 (paperback) (fiction), p.12
── growing greehouse gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases, in the earth atmosphere, changing the atmospheric chemical composition, leading to the inevitable Climate change crisis; non-linear feedback behavior in the climate model;
── how
one traffic jam (traffic congestion) can lead to the next traffic congestion further down the road, leading to a phenomena that can be called, standing wave traffic jam; given a fix time to get from point A to point B; given the fix distance that must be covered during that time; once you get delayed for some reason or another, then if you want to still make the meeting or get to work on time, meaning you are not going to move the goal post, by pushing out the meet time -- and most workers can not move that goal post -- then you are going try to make up for lost time, from the delay, by driving faster for the rest of the trip, and let us say you are doing this on a freeway or a highway with no traffic light pause (stop and go; wait and hurry up), then as more and more people in the same situation as you drive faster and faster to make up for lost time (even though no time was actually lost, because time is a fictional made up social agreement), because all the drivers (they) were in the same traffic jam as you, it is very likely (or not), that at some stage down the line (timeline, and pathway), all these faster moving cars is going to bunch up with the average speed moving cars causing a potential future congestion (traffic jam); this traffic jam analogical pattern can be applied to many other project management situations; where each traffic congestion (traffic jam) is an unanticipated problem -- technical, engineering, management, social, social-technical -- that has to be fixed to met the baseline minimum product or service requirement for the project to be a success; ...
── “In the philosophy of the Book of Changes nothing is regarded as being absolutely at rest; rest is merely an intermediate state of movement, or latent movement. However, there are points at which the movement becomes visible.”, p.282, The I Ching, or, BOOK OF CHANGES; The Richard Wilhelm translation from Chinese into German, rendered into English by Cary F. Baynes, foreword by C. G. Jung; preface to the 3rd edition by Hellmut Wilhelm, 1950, 1967, 1977, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1987, 1990.
____________________________________
── experience showed that
the process doesn’t converge; that no matter
how many iterations are done the overloads
move from one resource type to another.
source: Standing on the shoulders of Giants :
Production concepts versus production applications :
The Hitachi Tool Engineering Example
By Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt
filename: Standing-on-the-Shoulders-of-Giants.pdf
── p.11
... As a result, the decision of when
to release the material determines where and how
big the queues will be, which in turn determines
how much time it will take to complete the order,
which determines when to release the material.
We were facing a chicken and egg problem. In the
seventies [1970s] it was suggested to handle
that problem by reiterating the procedure (closed
loop MRP) – to run the computer system, to check
the resulting planned overloads on the various
resources (the size of the queues), to adjust
the due dates to eliminate the overloads, and
to repeat this process until all meaningful
overloads were eliminated. This suggestion did
not last long since experience showed that
the process doesn’t converge; that no matter
how many iterations are done the overloads just
move from one resource type to another.
... [...] ...
source: Standing on the shoulders of Giants :
Production concepts versus production applications :
The Hitachi Tool Engineering Example
By Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt
filename: Standing-on-the-Shoulders-of-Giants.pdf
____________________________________
____________________________________
Per Bak, How nature works, 1996 [ ]
p.197
Kai and Maya studied the situation in which there were only very rare random fluctuations initiating traffic jams. Interestingly, they point out that technological advancements such as cruise control or radar-based driving support would tend to reduce the fluctuations around maximum speed, and thus increase the range of validity of their results. One unintended consequence of these flow control technologies is that, if they work, they would in fact push the traffic system closer to its underlying critical point, thereby making prediction, planning, and control more difficult, in sharp contrast to the original intentions. Note the analogy with attempts to regulate economy (or sandpiles). Self-organized criticality [SOC] is a law of nature for which there is no dispensation.
( Bak, P. (Per), 1947-, How nature works : the science of self-organized criticality / Per Bak., 1. critical phenomena (physics), 2. complexity (philosophy), 3. physics--philosophy., QC173.4.C74B34 1996, 003'.7--dc20, 1996, )
<---------------------------------------------------------------------------->
• the 4th and the last threshold I want to talk about is self-organized critical state (threshold):
── self-organized critical state, or, self-organized criticality is a fancy phrase for nothing surprising is happening, nothing new, everything is the same, and then the event would go critical (non-linear), like (avalanches) (mudslide) (earthquake) (flash flood) (volcanoes eruption) or (forest fire)
── (avalanches)
── (mudslide)
── (earthquake)
── (flash flood)
── (flood)
── (erosion)
── (volcanoes eruption)
── (forest fire)
── (lighting)
── self-organized critical state (avalanches) (mudslide) (earthquake) (flash flood) (volcanoes eruption) (forest fire) [(threshold)]
── the example is a sand pile game, as you continually add sand to the pile, at first the sand is piling up, getting bigger and bigger, and as the pile get big, there would be a small sand slide now and again; however, according to self-organized critical state, as we add more and more sand to the pile, at some future state, there will be a big avalanche of sand slide; and according to Per Bak, the author of How nature works : the science of self-organized criticality, this pattern can be seen in natural events, and other human related events.
── self-organized critical state is a use case explanation for a (non-linear) world.
── Bak, P. (Per), 1947-
How nature works : the science of self-organized criticality / Per Bak.
1. critical phenomena (physics)
2. complexity (philosophy)
3. physics--philosophy.
── “All great deeds and all great thoughts”, Albert Camus once wrote, “have ridiculous beginnings.”17
── And so it was in 1987 when physicists Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Weisenfeld began playing this sandpile game in an office at Brookhaven National Laboratory, in New York State. As it turns out, this seemingly trival game lies behind the discovery of the widespread importance of the CRITICAL STATE--the discovery that can help us to make sense of upheavals. , p.18, Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, 2001.
── you have a glass with a heavy bottom (low center of gravity); initially, you give the glass a slight tap at the top; nothing; progressively and repeatedly you push the glass, each time you apply slightly more force until you have applied just enough force to tip the glass over; when you have applied enough force to tip glass over, the glass tipping over is a non-linear behavior (??); to make the situation more drammatic you can have a cup of hot coffee, and you are wear a white dress with a delicate fabric; ...
── if you know that there is a traffic jam at the bridge you are going cross that day (or everyday during that time) (and you need to get in line like everyone else to get through the botton neck) (for many working people everyone is asked to show up at work at a certain time each day in the morning) (and this behavior is repeated everyday at around the same time period each morning and afternoon, and this has become a normalized, then ... like the daily traffic jam has been normalized), the traffic jam is a bottle neck, a critical point in project management (PM), until the the flow starts, the bottle neck (the traffic jam), or, you are able to somehow time your arrival right when the flow starts, then getting out of the house early does not help you to get through the bottle neck; as a matter-of-fact, if you and everyone else showed up at the same time, then all the people there would be contributing to the bottle neck; in this situation (self-organized critical (soc) state), by showing up, you are contributing to the problem; having a bridge is important, building the bridge is important, funding and financing the bridge is important, designing and constructing the bridge so that it does not fall down unless it is supposed to is important; however, that same bridge can also become a parking lot, an absolute grid locked, a bottle neck, a traffic jam, if everyone uses the bridge at the same time, exceeding the limited capacity of the bridge; that same bridge can also become a death trap, given the proper environmental context and situation; in a way, you can view the bridge as a sort of a common; you can also view the bridge from an operation research perspective; you can also view the bridge from a system dynamics (stock-level, flow-rate) perspective; you can also view the bridge as simply a bridge, no more, no less; it is what it is; a bridge is a bridge, is a bridge, is a bridge; ...
──
── Cars were zipping about too fast for the small and badly paved parking lot, each driver trying to evade the Friday rush that each was, of course, helping to create., Tom Clancy, Without Remorse, 1993 (paperback) (fiction), p.12
── Cars were zipping about too fast for the bridge, which was about to become a parking lot, each driver trying to evade the ... rush that each was, of course, helping to create., Tom Clancy, Without Remorse, 1993 (paperback) (fiction), p.12
── growing greehouse gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases, in the earth atmosphere, changing the atmospheric chemical composition, leading to the inevitable Climate change crisis; non-linear feedback behavior in the climate model;
── how
one traffic jam (traffic congestion) can lead to the next traffic congestion further down the road, leading to a phenomena that can be called, standing wave traffic jam; given a fix time to get from point A to point B; given the fix distance that must be covered during that time; once you get delayed for some reason or another, then if you want to still make the meeting or get to work on time, meaning you are not going to move the goal post, by pushing out the meet time -- and most workers can not move that goal post -- then you are going try to make up for lost time, from the delay, by driving faster for the rest of the trip, and let us say you are doing this on a freeway or a highway with no traffic light pause (stop and go; wait and hurry up), then as more and more people in the same situation as you drive faster and faster to make up for lost time (even though no time was actually lost, because time is a fictional made up social agreement), because all the drivers (they) were in the same traffic jam as you, it is very likely (or not), that at some stage down the line (timeline, and pathway), all these faster moving cars is going to bunch up with the average speed moving cars causing a potential future congestion (traffic jam); this traffic jam analogical pattern can be applied to many other project management situations; where each traffic congestion (traffic jam) is an unanticipated problem -- technical, engineering, management, social, social-technical -- that has to be fixed to met the baseline minimum product or service requirement for the project to be a success; ...
── “In the philosophy of the Book of Changes nothing is regarded as being absolutely at rest; rest is merely an intermediate state of movement, or latent movement. However, there are points at which the movement becomes visible.”, p.282, The I Ching, or, BOOK OF CHANGES; The Richard Wilhelm translation from Chinese into German, rendered into English by Cary F. Baynes, foreword by C. G. Jung; preface to the 3rd edition by Hellmut Wilhelm, 1950, 1967, 1977, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1987, 1990.
____________________________________
── experience showed that
the process doesn’t converge; that no matter
how many iterations are done the overloads
move from one resource type to another.
source: Standing on the shoulders of Giants :
Production concepts versus production applications :
The Hitachi Tool Engineering Example
By Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt
filename: Standing-on-the-Shoulders-of-Giants.pdf
── p.11
... As a result, the decision of when
to release the material determines where and how
big the queues will be, which in turn determines
how much time it will take to complete the order,
which determines when to release the material.
We were facing a chicken and egg problem. In the
seventies [1970s] it was suggested to handle
that problem by reiterating the procedure (closed
loop MRP) – to run the computer system, to check
the resulting planned overloads on the various
resources (the size of the queues), to adjust
the due dates to eliminate the overloads, and
to repeat this process until all meaningful
overloads were eliminated. This suggestion did
not last long since experience showed that
the process doesn’t converge; that no matter
how many iterations are done the overloads just
move from one resource type to another.
... [...] ...
source: Standing on the shoulders of Giants :
Production concepts versus production applications :
The Hitachi Tool Engineering Example
By Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt
filename: Standing-on-the-Shoulders-of-Giants.pdf
____________________________________
____________________________________
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