Monday, January 9, 2023

strong weak links, Malcolm Gladwell, rock star

    ____________________________________
38:09
My Little Hundred Million
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6t4hfXqqc0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6t4hfXqqc0
Dr. York
  Premiered Sep 30, 2021
If you want to take your thinking to the next level, you have to study the best and outwork the rest.
   ____________________________________
what matters
is that the
I would say, pay more attention to whether the person at the bottom of the distribution is pretty good
than you pay attention to the whether the person at the top of the distribution is world-class
that's how I would phrase it

 43:18
Malcolm Gladwell & Adam Grant: Getting Uncomfortable with the Future | Future of Work Conference
https://youtu.be/jH7IvThAoH0?t=1403
https://youtu.be/jH7IvThAoH0?t=1403
Wharton School
  May 17, 2022  #FutureofWork #MalcolmGladwell #AdamGrant
"Getting Uncomfortable with the Future," followed by Q&A

In this characteristically provocative conversation, Adam Grant and Malcolm Gladwell debate what’s been overlooked and misunderstood about leadership, whether high performance gets too much attention, and how to build teams that are more than the sum of their parts.

In the wide-ranging follow-up Q&A to their discussion, Malcolm and Adam discuss whether organizations should hire historians, why Malcolm is retiring from the regrets game, and some principles that should guide the future of hiring.
   ____________________________________
https://medium.com/@jasmintorres_58228/strong-link-vs-weak-link-cdd71d1db772

Jasmin Torres
May 5, 2017

·
4 min read
·

Listen

Strong Link Vs Weak Link

What does is mean to be the “weak link” or the “strong link” in a scenario? Gladwell gives examples of both weak link and strong link in his podcast, “My Little Hundred Million.” Malcolm Gladwell talks about how Hank Rowan, an engineer who selflessly donated one hundred million dollars to Glassboro State University, a small college in need. Shortly after, many others started to follow Rowan’s lead, but they only donated to wealthy elite schools that were not in need of the money. Why didn’t any of those people follow Rowan?

Hank Rowan is a weak link, and he wanted to make a difference with the money he donated. Rowan wanted to make the world a better place by supporting the worst “player” rather than helping the “superstar” such as Harvard. Gladwell explains how soccer is a weak link and basketball is a strong link sport for may reasons. I think managers of a company are the strong links, and their employees are the weak links. While in college, I see that professors are the strong link in the situation and their students are the weak link. Finally, in the political world I think most politicians are the stronger links, and we the people are the weak links. Both the weak link and strong link can relate to things happening in the world around us.

Malcolm Gladwell discusses how soccer is a weak link and basketball is a strong link sport. Studies show that if people want to win a game of soccer, they should upgrade the worst players on the team. In the game of soccer Gladwell says, “You will never see one person dribble the soccer ball from one end of the field to another.” A lot of players have to touch the ball to make a goal. If one does not upgrade the weakest links on the team, they will drag the rest of the team down. In soccer the worst players on a team are the most important. On the other hand, Gladwell also states that basketball is a strong link sport. A strong link is like professional basketball because studies show that if people want to win basketball games, you should upgrade the top one to two players on the team. Basketball is a star playing game. For example, Lebron James does not need anyone else to touch the ball if he wants to win. A basketball team doesn’t get that much better if upgrading the weak links, it’s more of a one person sport. Although some sports relate to strong links and weak links, it’s also relatable in the real world.

To continue with, in the workforce world managers are the stronger links while the employees are the weaker links. Managers have to go through schooling in order to file for their position to be the stronger link. They also have to be able to comply to more restrictions and responsibilities. Another great point is how management want their employees to succeed, and they hire the employees on leading management to be on top of the totem pole in hierarchy. Likewise, employees are the weak links in the workforce because they need to work harder in order to reach their goals and expectations that management requires. I also believe that they are weak linked because they don’t get paid as much and often have to do the “dirty work” (Jobs that management typically doesn’t have to do… like cleaning the bathrooms or cleaning up messes from customers). Management is stronger, and the employees are on the weaker end of the stick.

Also, in a college setting I have come to the realization that my professors are the stronger links due to their ability to teach their weak-linked students. They have also gone through many years of school in order to peak their education. College professors have an age gap (sometimes) compared to their students which leads professors to have more respect from their peers. Society says professors are more mature and less likely to go out and party unlike their weaker linked students. Professors are more likely to make better decisions due to gaining experience throughout the years. Professors are the stronger links in comparison to the students.

Are politicians who run America a strong link or a weak link? I believe that the politicians in America are strong links, and we the people are the weak links. As a democracy, we have the say; we vote these people in so we should technically have the power. We make ourselves the weak link. If we the people were to put ourselves in each politician’s shoes we would be able to make our voice be heard even louder. We make ourselves the weak links because many americans aren’t voting. We could be the change and make our beliefs be heard. For this country to be great we should focus on both the weak link and the strong link.

Would America be a better country if the money went where it is needed? Free lunch programs, medicare, medicaid and Obamacare are all weak links that are frequently used in America by millions of people. There are still children coming to school with nothing to eat. Also, medical health programs are used for people who can not afford health coverage. America could be better if everyone had health care they could afford. These programs are here to help people. I think america should invest more in the weak links to become greater nation.

The weak link can be the least dependable person on a team, workplace, classroom, in politics, and even in our society around us. In “My Little Hundred Million,” Malcolm Gladwell gives great examples of a weak link and a strong link with soccer and basketball. In Gladwell’s podcast, he makes a person think why didn’t anyone follow Hank Rowans example? Why didn’t anyone who donated wanted to make a difference for the college? Is it just say “I donated to the most wonderful school in America? People like Hank Rowan want to make a difference in the world.

https://medium.com/@jasmintorres_58228/strong-link-vs-weak-link-cdd71d1db772
   ____________________________________

weakest link (football - aka soccer)

1:02:16
What world awaits Gen Z? | Malcolm Gladwell x Brain Bar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AaQn3FOrfY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AaQn3FOrfY
Brain Bar
  Nov 3, 2022
What's more important? To enhance the performance of your best players or to strengthen the weakest links in the team? Six-time New York Times bestselling author, writer of Tipping Point, Outliers and Talking to Strangers Malcolm Gladwell explains why we should turn to football if we want to build a fair future for all.
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rock star (basketball)

12:48
Erin Meyer - Interview at the HS Visio Studio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fniGWvx3nY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fniGWvx3nY

Nordic Business Forum
  Oct 24, 2022  #nbf #nbforum #nordicbusinessforum
#nbforum #nordicbusinessforum #nbf
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F. Brooks: No Silver Bullet—Essence and accident in software engineering (1986)

No Silver Bullet
—Essence and Accident in Software Engineering


Frederick P. Brooks, Jr.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

There is no single development, in either technology or management
technique, which by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude
improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity.

Abstract1
    All software construction involves essential tasks, the fashioning of the complex conceptual structures that compose the abstract software entity, and accidental tasks, the representation of these abstract entities in programming languages and the mapping of these onto machine languages within space and speed constraints. Most of the big past gains in software productivity have come from removing artificial barriers that have made the accidental tasks inordinately hard, such as severe hardware constraints, awkward programming languages, lack of machine time. How much of what software engineers now do is still devoted to the accidental, as opposed to the essential? Unless it is more than 9/10 of all effort, shrinking all the accidental activities to zero time will not give an order of magnitude improvement.
    Therefore it appears that the time has come to address the essential parts of the software task, those concerned with fashioning abstract conceptual structures of great complexity. I suggest:

• Exploiting the mass market to avoid constructing what can be bought.
• Using rapid prototyping as part of a planned iteration in establishing software
requirements.
• Growing software organically, adding more and more function to systems as they are run, used, and tested.
• Identifying and developing the great conceptual designers of the rising generation.

Introduction

Of all the monsters who fill the nightmares of our folklore, none terrify more than werewolves, because they transform unexpectedly from the familiar into horrors. For these, we seek bullets of silver than can magically lay them to rest.

1 Reproduced from: Frederick P. Brooks, The Mythical Man-Month, Anniversary edition with 4 new chapters, Addison-Wesley (1995), itself reprinted from the Proceedings of the IFIP Tenth World Computing Conference, H.-J. Kugler, ed., Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, NL (1986) pp. 1069-76.

F. Brooks: No Silver Bullet—Essence and accident in software engineering (1986)


p.15
Great designs come from great designers.  Software construction is a creative process.  Sound methodology can empower and liberate creative mind; it cannot enflame or inspire the drudge.
    The differences are not minor ─ it is rather like Salieri and Mozart.  Study after study shows that the very best designers produce structures that are faster, smaller, simpler, cleaner, and produced with less effort.  The differences between the great and the average approach an order of magnitude.
    A little retrospection shows that although many fine, useful software systems have been designed by committees and built by multipart projects, those software systems that have excited passionate fans are those that are the products of one of a few designing minds, great designers.  Consider Unix, APL, Pascal, Modula, the Smalltalk interface, even Fortran; and contrast with Cobol, PL/I, Algol, MVS/370, and MS-DOS (fig.1)

                  Yes         No
                  --------    --------
                  Unix        COBOL
                  APL         PL/1
                  Pascal      Algol
                  Modula      MVS/370
                  Smalltalk   MS-DOS
                  Fortran

                        Fig. 1  Exciting products

    Hence, although I strongly support the technology transfer and curriculum development efforts now underway, I think the most important single effort we can mount is to develop ways to grow great designers.

F. Brooks:  no silver bullet──essence and accident in software engineering (1986)
p.16
    No software organization can ignore this challenge.  Good managers, scarce though they be, are no scarcer than good designers.  Great designers and great managers are both very rare.  Most organizations spend considerable effort in finding and cultivating the management prospects; I know of none that spends equal effort in finding and developing the great designers upon whom the technical excellence of the products will ultimately depend.

                 ── Fred Brooks, 1986 discussion paper on software engineering,
                    "No Silver Bullet—Essence and Accident in Software Engineering"


filename:  Brooks-NoSilverBullet.pdf
   ____________________________________
 • But the combined effects of large numbers of improvements within a technological system may be immense.9

Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982
pp.56─57
Complementaries

Inventions hardly ever function in isolation.  Time and again in the history of ... technology, it has happened that the productivity of a given invention has turned on the question of the availability of complementary technologies.  Often these technologies did not initially exist, so that the benefits potentially flowing from invention A had to await the achievement of inventions B, C, or D.  These relationships of complementarity therefore make it exceedingly difficult to predict the flow of benefits from any single invention and commonly lead to a postponement in the flow of such expected benefits.  Technologies depend upon one another and interact with one another in ways that are not apparent to the casual observer, and often not to the specialist.
   A serious difficulty in tracing out the social payoff to invention is that these linkages are both numerous and of varying degrees of importance and therefore difficult to measure with any pretense of precision.  Thus an invention reducing the cost of power generation differentially affects different industries.

p.58
By the 1880s and the 1890s, as a result of refrigeration techniques, the rapidly growing populations of western Europe were becoming heavily dependent upon a wide range of overseas food products, including not only the North American midwest but also large quantities of lamb from New Zealand and Australia and beef from Argentine.5

pp.60─61
p.60
  It is characteristic of a system that improvements in performance in one part are of limited significance without simultaneous improvements in other parts, just as the auditory benefits of a high-quality amplifier are lost when it is connected to a hi-fi set with a low-quality loudspeaker.  
p.60
(For example, after the introduction of steel rails make possible the use of longer trains with heavier loads traveling at higher speeds, making them much more difficult to stop, Westinghouse “providentially” developed the air brake. The improved design of automobile engines and greater speeds were likely to be disastrous without a better braking system and better engineered roads.)
p.60
Similarly, improvements in power generation will have only a limited impact on the delivered cost of electricity until improvements are made in the transmission network and the cost of transporting electricity over long distances.
p.60
This need for further innovations in complementary activities is an important reason why even apparently spectacular breakthroughs usually have only a gradually rising productivity curve flowing from them.
pp.60-61
Really major improvements in productivity therefore seldom flow from single technological innovations, however significant they may appear to be.
p.61
But the combined effects of large numbers of improvements within a technological system may be immense.9
Moreover, there are internal pressures within such systems that serve to provide inducement mechanisms of a dynamic sort.
One invention sharply raises the economic payoff to the introduction of another invention.
The attention and effort of skilled engineered personnel are forcefully focused on specific problems by the shifting succession of bottlenecks that emerge as output expands.10
p.61
  The role of complementarity relationships may be further observed, in finer detail, in the history of individual innovations.  Sometimes a particular innovation has to await the availability of a specific complementary input or component; sometimes the evident need for the input is sufficient to lead to its invention;

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )
   ____________________________________
 • Complementary Proteins
 • Nutrient Partners
   • biochemical partnerships that affect how well they are absorbed by the body.

Reader's digest., Family guide to natural medicine : how to stay healthy the natural way, 1993
p.268
Complementary Proteins
“Virtually all traditional societies used grain and legume combinations as their main source of protein and energy.  In Latin America it was corn tortillas with beans, or rice with beans.  In the Middle East it was bulgur wheat with chickpeas or pita bread falafel with hummus sauce (whole wheat, chickpeas, and seasame seeds).  In India it was rice or chapaties with dal (lentils, often served with yogurt).  In Asia it was soy foods with rice.
   “In each case, the balance was typically 70 to 80 percent whole grains and 20 to 30 percent legumes, the very balance that nutritionists have found maximizes protein usability.”
     ── excerpted from “Diet for a small planet” by Frances Moore Lappé

p.276
Nutrient Partners

Although all vitamins and minerals influence one another, some have special biochemical partnerships that affect how well they are absorbed by the body.  Vitamin C enhances the absorption of iron, which is why topping a bowl of iron-enriched cereal with strawberries ── excellent sources of Vitamin C ── is a tasty as well as healthy choice.  Other nutrient partners include vitamin D and calcium, vitamin E and selenium, vitamin B12 and folic acid, and calcium and magnesium.

   (Family guide to natural medicine : how to stay healthy the natural way / Reader's digest., 1. alternative medicine., includes bibliographical references and index., R733.F36  1993, 615.5─dc20, )
   ____________________________________
An introduction to buddhism

An introduction to buddhism : teachings on the four noble truths, the eight verses on training the mind, and the lamp fo the path to enlightenment
by The Dalai Lama
translated by Thupten Jinpa

2004, 2003, 2018

pp.69-70
   Buddhists accept this third class of “extremely obscured” phenomena on the basis of the scriptural authority of the Buddha.  However, our acceptance of that authority is not a simplistic one.  We don't just say, “Oh, the Buddha was a very holy person and since he said this I believe it to be true”.  There are certain underlying principles involved in the Buddhist acceptance of scripture-based authority.  One of these is the principle of the four reliances, which is generally stated as follows:
   Rely on the teaching, not  on the person;
   Rely on the meaning, not on the word;
   Rely on the definitive meaning, not on the provisional;
   Rely on your wisdom mind, not on your ordinary mind.

p.91
   As I mentioned earlier, many texts on emptiness state that the understanding of dependent origination is the most powerful means of arriving at the knowledge of emptiness.
When, as a result of engaging in deep meditation on emptiness, we fail to find the intrinsic reality of the object of our focus, we do not conclude from this that the object in question does not exist at all.
Instead, we deduce that since our critical analysis has failed to find the true, independent existence of the object, its existence or reality must be understood only as dependent origination.
Therefore, a genuine understanding of emptiness must really take place.  
The moment we reflect upon our understanding of the emptiness of inherent existence, that very understanding will indicate that things exist.  
It is almost as if when we hear the word “emptiness” we should instantly recognise its implication, which is that of existing by means of dependent origination.
([ existing by means of dependent origination ])
A genuine understanding of emptiness, therefore, is said to be that in which one understands emptiness in terms of dependent origination.   

p.92
Nagarjuna's response is to state that by “emptiness” we do not mean a mere nothingness; rather, by “emptiness” we mean dependent origination.
([ nearly all things exist by means of dependent origination ])
([ therefore, their existence is without independent origination ])
([ “emptiness” of independent origination. ])
([ devoid of independent origination. ])
([ lacking of independent origination. ])
([ dependent, independent, inter dependent, co-dependent ])
In this way Nagarjuna's teaching on emptiness transcends the extremes of absolutism and nihilism.  By rejecting intrinsic, independent existence his view transcends absolutism; and by stating that things and events do exist, albeit as dependent originations, he transcends the extreme of nihilism.  
This transcendence of the two extremes of absolutism and nihilism represents the truth Middle Way.

“”─“”‘’•─“”
pp.92-93
   At this point it may be helpful to reflect a little on the different levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination.  On one level dependent origination refers to the nature of things and events as understood  in term of their dependence upon causes and conditions.
On another level this dependence can be understood more in terms of mutual dependence.  For example, there is a mutuality of concepts between, say, long and short, in which something is posited as “long” in relation to something else that is “short”.  Similarly, things and events have both parts and a whole; the whole is constituted of the parts, and the parts are posited in relation to the whole.

principle of dependent origination.
 - dependence upon causes and conditions.
 - mutual dependence.
   - mutuality of concepts
     - long and short: “long” exist in relation to that which is “short”.
     - the whole is made up of the parts
     - parts exist in relation to the whole.
 - designations, appellations, labels, and so on.
   - a label or a name
   - appellations [1. a descriptive name or title: ...; 2. the act of naming.], [for examples, the “Great” in Great Britain, and, “Great” in Catherine the Great]
 - these three levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination pervade the entire spectrum of reality.
“”─“”‘’•─“”

p.93
   On another level still, the principle of dependent origination relates to the subject, which is the conceptual mind that creates designations, appellations, labels, and so on.  As we have briefly discussed before, when we give something a label or a name we generally tend to assume that the labelled object has some kind of true, independent existence.  Yet when we search for the true existence or esssence of the thing in question, we always fail to find it.
Our conclusion, therefore, is that while things do exist on the conventional level, they do not possess ultimate, objective reality.  
Rather, their existence can only be posited as a mere appellation, designation, or label.  According to Nagarjuna, these three levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination pervade the entire spectrum of reality.  


An introduction to buddhism : teachings on the four noble truths, the eight verses on training the mind, and the lamp fo the path to enlightenment
   The Dalai Lama
translated by Thupten Jinpa
2004, 2003, 2018
   ____________________________________
Interpretation is going on all the time.
Knowledge is interest driven.
All knowledge is already intepreted knowledge.
We take for granted in many way.
Knowledge, perception, interpretation, meaning-making is going on all the time.
Language is both a source of revelation and a source of obfuscation.
Language is a source of deep profound misunderstanding.

Invited to answer those questions

source:
38:43
Understanding and Dialogue: What I Have Learned from H. G. Gadamer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKPavjWk-pM&t=378s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKPavjWk-pM&t=378s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKPavjWk-pM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKPavjWk-pM
The Craft of Living : By Ante Jeroncic
  Dec 6, 2020
Understanding, dialogue, interpretation, attention, and openness are essential ingredients of meaningful interpersonal relationships. They also happen to be central themes in one of the most important contributions to contemporary thought - H. G. Gadamer's philosophical hermeneutics. In this episode, I relate some of the ways in which he has influenced me.

EPISODE SECTIONS
00:05 - Updates, Insights, and Announcements
06:18 - Episode Start
09:26 - Interpretation
20:29 - Language
23:45 - Dialogue
28:58 - David Brook's article "Nine Nonobvious Ways to Have Deeper Conversation"
   ____________________________________

he [Gadamer] is concerned with figuring out the meaning of understanding
what is it, what do we mean when we say or what can we mean
the range of meanings we can have when we talk about understanding something
understanding a person,
understanding a piece of religious artifact,  
understanding a movie,
understanding a piece of art,
understanding a text,
and kind of understanding that a scientist has after they interpreted
some scientific results
what he tries to do is open up
have a picture, have a concept of understanding that is big enough
that doesn't dismiss Natural Sciences
doesn't distort our concept of human sciences
  ...
he [Gadamer] puts forward four key concepts that come from the humanist tradition
these four concepts are the
concept of common sense or senses ...
concept of ...  (cultivation), translated to education or formation
judgement and
taste

https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Truth_and_Method
  concept of  Bildung (culture)
  concept of  Sensus communis
  concept of  Judgement
  concept of  Taste
https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Truth_and_Method
  ...
common sense comes from belonging to a community,
acting appropriately in a community,
knowing how to act appropriately in a community without
always being able to explain why
being able to explain all the rule

common sense as social sense

bildung - a process of opening up a space, go into that space, and come back
so for example, you learn to read ancient philosophical text
you learn drawing, you learn oil painting or
you learn to play an instrument
you learn to play tennis or rock climbing
everyone of these things involve bildung
it involves opening up a space, where you go to that activity,
you do something that is specific special to that space,
 to that activity, and then you come back from it
so somebody who has gone through a bildung has  wide space of available
positions where he or she can go to them and come back,
each position involves transcending initial prejudices
the limits of this person's prejudice
subjective prejudices
possibly reaching a view point that is more universal
is more general
is more available to a wider group of people


source:
        10:03
        Gadamer's Truth & Method
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKapfppUosw
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKapfppUosw
Davood Gozli
  Feb 13, 2020
This video is about Hans-Georg Gadamer and his book, Truth & Method. I begin by comparing the difference between secondary sources about Gadamer and a direct engagement with Gadamer's text. The text itself is rich, stimulating, and evokes the image of an author as someone who is himself intensely studying the history of ideas, the humanist tradition, and the nature of understanding. Moreover, I discuss the four core concepts, which according to Gadamer, are at the core of the humanist tradition: Bildung, Sensus Communis, Judgment, and Taste.
   ____________________________________
   ____________________________________
https://www.citadel.edu/root/images/commandant/assistant-commandant-leadership/for-the-want-of-a-nail.pdf

“A Little Neglect May Breed Great Mischief”
Root-Cause Thinking Reveals That We Are Only as Strong as Our Weakest Link

“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.”

Benjamin Franklin included a version of this proverb, preceded by the words, “A little neglect may breed great mischief,” in Poor Richard's Almanack in 1758 when the American colonies were at odds with the English Parliament. During World War II, this verse was framed and hung on the wall of the Anglo-American Supply Headquarters in London to remind everyone the importance of seemingly trivial repair parts and inventory replenishment.

As a lesson for today’s capacity assurance issues, I am borrowing this ancient proverb, which can be traced back to the 1390s and has been used by a variety of sources from Benjamin Franklin and nursery rhymes to philosophers and poets, all of whom communicated the same intent: We’re only as strong as our weakest link.

It is highly unlikely that anybody ever thought, upon seeing his unshod horse, that the kingdom would eventually fall because of a missing nail. In the heat of the battle, very few people would even notice the work of the “lowly smithy” (blacksmith) hurriedly shoeing horses. Few would appreciate the value of a
properly fitted horseshoe affixed with nails when the horse is in full gallop except for the smithy.  However, when catastrophe happens, 20-20 hindsight really brings the nail into a much sharper focus, and the smithy is to blame.

There are real-life historical examples of the truth behind this proverb. Consider this: On the bloodiest day in American history—September 17, 1862—the Civil War Battle of Sharpsburg (also known as Antietam) resulted in nearly 23,000 casualties. After crossing the Potomac River into Maryland on September 9, 1862, Confederate General Robert E. Lee divided the 45,000-man Army of Northern Virginia and spelled out the location for each group on written dispatches (Special Order No. 191) for delivery to various commanders. These dispatches were delivered by couriers on horseback to the commanders except for one that was accidentally dropped from the courier’s pocket when he stopped along the way to relieve himself. Unfortunately for General Lee, this dispatch was found by a Union soldier just a few days later in an envelope wrapped around three cigars near a fence. This misplaced secret dispatch reached Union Army Commander George B. McClellan, giving him and his 90,000-man army the exact locations of their enemy, leading to a strategic Union victory... for the want of a rider..., for the want of a message.

It is important to remember that such root-cause thinking is typically seen in hindsight. It is highly unlikely that anyone would have warned that cigars in a message envelope would have led to foiled military plans and to the loss of a Civil War battle.

Horseshoe nails were not self-installing, so let’s go back to the original proverb and explore days gone by to see what happens before the “nail” is ever struck. (My apologies to Ben Franklin and others before him.)
2
For want of an apprentice, the blacksmith was lost.
For want of a blacksmith, the shop was lost.
For want of a shop, the hammer was lost.
For want of hammer, the nail was lost.
For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the message was lost.
For want of a message, the battle was lost.
For want of a battle, the war was lost.
For want of a war, the kingdom was lost,
All for the want of an apprentice.

The point here is that while the nail is truly important, the apprentice who is in training to properly shoe the horse with all the skills and knowledge of a blacksmith is by far the most important element of sustainable success. The success of the kingdom rests with apprentices in training! Think about that point a bit deeper...before the apprentice. What if the society back in the days of horse-mounted warriors did not value the work of the “lowly” blacksmiths and the younger generation was no longer encouraged to become skilled at the blacksmiths trade? How would the horses be properly shod? Could horses perform their tasks with ill-fitting, loose, and missing shoes? Would the knights in battle be lost? The deeper meaning of this proverb is this: The end result depends entirely on the functional capability of every component, every element or preparation. A process is only as strong and reliable as its weakest link.

This proverb has a powerful meaning in today’s business world. Most of us recognize that the goal of any mechanized, capital-intensive business is to consistently and safely deliver highly valued goods or services to the customers at the lowest cost and the highest profits. Without reliable equipment and
processes, competitive advantage is lost regardless of the type of capital-intensive business. So, let’s analyze this expanded age-old proverb and see how it fits in today’s business of maintenance and reliability.

The apprentice represents a dedicated, young, eager, and able student—the assistant and trainee. The blacksmith represents a skilled journeyman mechanic or technician who also keeps the shop as a well-organized and stocked workplace. The hammer represents the proper tools used while working with the nail, a bolt that holds the motor in alignment. The horseshoe represents the motor for a critical pump. The horse represents the machine or unit of equipment, and the rider represents in-control production line or manufacturing process. Then the message (or mission statement: on time, high quality, low cost producer...) guides us to success in a battle for on-time customer deliveries. The war that most of our
businesses are in is for market share. And of course, the kingdom is the business of the company that supports investors and employees and benefits the community. So, here’s the modern-day antithesis of the centuries-old nail proverb:

Because s/he was an apprentice, the journeyman mechanic was highly skilled.
Because of the journeyman mechanic, the shop was also efficient, well-organized and stocked.
Because of the efficient, well-organized and stocked shop, the tools and
parts were available.
3
Because of the tools and parts, the bolts were torqued by the highly skilled
mechanic.
Because of the torqued bolts, the motor was aligned.
Because of the aligned motor, the equipment remained reliable.
Because of the reliable equipment, the production process was effective.
Because of the effective production process, the mission is possible.
Because of the shared commitment to the mission, the customer deliveries
were on time.
Because of the on-time customer deliveries, market share was won.
Because of the added market share, the business of the company was
victorious,
All because of the apprentice.

The truth is we have neglected to encourage today’s younger generation’s active and purposeful pursuit of applied skills and knowledge for careers in industrial maintenance and reliability. In fact, most teachers, counselors, parents, and students have no idea of how satisfying and financially rewarding careers in
industrial maintenance and reliability could be with one to two years of technical education beyond high school graduation. Consequentially, shop classes, industrial arts, career education, and career preparation classes are few and far between in our nation’s public schools—a kingdom at risk!

To highlight the worsening career education disconnect that began back in the 1960s, I will share one of my favorite and highly appropriate quotes from the 1964 Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient John W. Gardner as a point to ponder:

The society which scorns excellence in plumbing as a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy.
Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water.

And lastly, another of Gardner’s memorable quotes from more than 40 years ago:

Much education today is monumentally ineffective. All too often, we are giving young people cut flowers when we should be teaching them to grow their own plants.

We must do everything we can to help our youth, our executives, out leaders, our educators, our politicians, and our governmental agencies appreciate the dead-end road that our nation is travelling.  Capital-intensive businesses truly generate original wealth and are one of the most critical building blocks of our nation’s economy. Assuring the capacity to produce efficiently and effectively depends on reliable equipment.  Reliable equipment depends on our people—their applied skills and knowledge—doing things right the first time.

For the want of a nail, the kingdom was lost. For the want of an apprentice, an industry is lost....

© 2008
Robert M. Williamson
Strategic Work Systems, Inc.
Columbus, NC 28722
RobertMW2@cs.com
www.swspitcrew.com

https://www.citadel.edu/root/images/commandant/assistant-commandant-leadership/for-the-want-of-a-nail.pdf
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail


For Want of a Nail

    For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
    For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
    For want of a horse the rider was lost.
    For want of a rider the message was lost.
    For want of a message the battle was lost.
    For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
    And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.


"Message" Variation

    For want of a nail a horseshoe was lost,
    for want of a horseshoe a horse went lame,
    for want of a horse a rider never got through,
    for want of a rider a message never arrived,
    for want of a message an army was never sent,
    for want of an army a battle was lost,
    for want of a battle a war was lost,
    for want of a war a kingdom fell,
    and all for want of a nail.

– Unknown[15]



"Rundgren" Variation

    For want of a nail, the shoe was lost,
    For want of a shoe, the horse was lost,
    For want of a horse, the rider was lost,
    For want of a rider, the message was lost,
    For want of a message, the battle was lost,
    For want of a battle, the war was lost,
    For want of a war, the kingdom was lost,
    For want of a nail, the world was lost
    'The Want of a Nail"

– T. Rundgren
Warner Chappell N.A., Ltd., 1989
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https://www.bookbrowse.com/expressions/detail/index.cfm/expression_number/558/for-want-of-a-nail-the-kingdom-was-lost

Why do we say "For want of a nail the kingdom was lost"?

Well-Known Expressions

For want of a nail the kingdom was lost
Meaning:

No detail is too small to ignore to achieve a successful outcome

Background:

This essence of this proverb dates back to at least the late 14th century in English and to the early 13th century in German.

The earliest extant reference is in the work of Freidank, an early 13th century didactic poet (i.e writer of poems intended to teach) who is thought to have lived somewhere around Swabia, which was part of the German kingdom of the time. His version translates something like:

The wise tell us that a nail keeps a shoe, a shoe keeps a horse, a horse keeps a knight, a knight, who can fight, keeps a castle.

The earliest surviving reference in English is by John Gower in the late 14th century in his expansive poem Confessio Amantis ("The Lover's Confession"). Gower was a contemporary and friend of Geoffrey Chaucer so its safe to say that his Middle English version of the expression would be almost as unintelligible to most modern English speakers as Freidank's Germanic version is.

Where things get confusing is where the proverb in its modern form - including the reference to a lost kingdom - originated. Many sources point to it being a reference to Richard III of England's defeat at the Battle of Bosworth Field in 1485. But there is a bit of a hole in this from an historic perspective as it would seem that Richard's horse did not lose a shoe but got stuck in the mud.

Maybe we have Shakespeare to thank for the introduction of the concept of the loss of the kingdom due to the loss of the horse:

A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse! (Richard III, Act V, Scene IV)

But versions of the expression between Shakespeare's time and up to the 20th century don't appear to reference "kingdom". For example, in 1758 Benjamin Franklin in The Way to Wealth wrote:

For want of a nail the shoe was lost,
for want of a shoe the horse was lost;
and for want of a horse the rider was lost;
being overtaken and slain by the enemy,
all for want of care about a horse-shoe nail.

Some think that the lack of "kingdom" in American versions was due to the irrelevance of kingdoms to the newly formed United States of America, but there appear to be a lack of "kingdom" references in British versions as well.

Where the whole thing seems to come together is in "The Horseshoe Nails" by James Baldwin (1924-1987), one of the stories in his Fifty Famous People. The story ends:

"For the want of a nail the shoe was lost;
For the want of a shoe the horse was lost;
For the want of a horse the battle was lost;
For the failure of battle the kingdom was lost;—
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail."

It seems difficult to believe that James Baldwin was the first to include the use of "kingdom," but with no evidence to the contrary, this is where our trail ends!


Updates:

Becky writes: "I remember this phrase being used in a book I read as a child (unless my memory has betrayed me) - What Katy Did by Susan Coolidge, published in 1892.

Lexicop writes: "I heard this poem many decades ago, and my memory is clear on the terms being not "horseshoe nail" but "two-penny nail" The latter better highlights the disparity between the high cost of the lost kingdom and the trivial expense of the nail: It makes better poetic sense. But I cannot document this reading. Any thoughts?"
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 • “law of minimum.” It doesn't matter how much nitrogen is available to the grain, he said, if what's short is phosphorus.
   ── It does not no good to pour on more phosphorus, if the problem is low potassium.
   ── Bread will not rise without yeast, no matter how much flour it has.
       ■ context:  baking, cooking, chemistry
   ── Children will not thrive without protein, no matter how many carbohydrates they eat.
       ■ context: human biological system  
   ── This concept of a limiting factor is simple and widely misunderstood.
   ── Insight comes not only from recognising which factor is limiting, but from seeing that growth itself depletes or enchances limits and therefore changes what is limiting.
   ── Whenever one factor ceases to be limiting, growth occurs, and the growth itself changes the relative scarcity of factors until another becomes limiting.
   ── To shift attention from the abundant factors to the next potential limiting factor is to gain real understanding of ... the growth process.
       ■ context: system dynamics

 • if-some-is-good-more-is-better syndrome.

 • threshold effects: phenomena that offer benefits only to a particular point.
   ── People who consume half as much vitamin A as they need can lose their vision to an ugly disease called xerophthalmia;* eating twice as much Vitamin A as needed doesn't give them 20/10 vision.
       ■ context: human biological system, disease model   
   ── minimum threshold effects:  to get the benefits, you must consume enough whole food (grains, fruits, vegetables, fishes, and others) and drink enough liquid that contain the specific nutrients, vitamins, trace minerals; ... .
   ── In the same way, a school that buys only half as many textbooks as it needs is in trouble, but one that buys twice as many as it needs is just wasting money.
       ■ context: ???
   ── point, zone, range, area, territory, region, kingdom of diminishing return
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Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, Thinking in systems             [ ]
p.101
A patch of growing grain needs:

    • sunlight
    • air
    • water
    • nitrogen
    • phosphorus
    • potassium
    • dozens of minor nutrients
    • a friable soil and the services of a microbial soil community
    • some system to control the weeds and pests ([ ideally without pesticides, insecticides, herbicides or any chemical of that sort ])
    • protection from the wastes of the industrial manufacturer

It was with regard to grain that Justus von Liebig came up with his famous “law of minimum.” It doesn't matter how much nitrogen is available to the grain, he said, if what's short is phosphorus. It does not no good to pour on more phosphorus, if the problem is low potassium.
  Bread will not rise without yeast, no matter how much flour it has. Children will not thrive without protein, no matter how many carbohydrates they eat. Companies can't keep going without energy, no matter how many customers they have──or without customers, no matter how much energy they have.
  This concept of a limiting factor is simple and widely misunderstood.

p.102
  There are layers of limits [and minimum threshold effects] around every growing plant, child, epidemic [tipping point], new product, technological advance, company, city, economy, and population. Insight comes not only from recognising which factor is limiting, but from seeing that growth itself depletes or enchances limits and therefore changes what is limiting. The interplay between a growing plant and the soil, a growing company and its market, a growing economy and its resource base, is dynamic. Whenever one factor ceases to be limiting, growth occurs, and the growth itself changes the relative scarcity of factors until another becomes limiting. To shift attention from the abundant factors to the next potential limiting factor is to gain real understanding of, and control over, the growth process.

     (Thinking in systems : a primer, Donella H. Meadows, Edited by Diana Wright, sustainability institute, 2008, QA 402 .M425 2008, )

 • Insight comes not only from recognising which factor is limiting, but from seeing that growth itself depletes or enchances limits and therefore changes what is limiting.
 • Whenever one factor ceases to be limiting, growth occurs, and the growth itself changes the relative scarcity of factors until another becomes limiting.
 • To shift attention from the abundant factors to the next potential limiting factor is to gain real understanding of ... the growth process.
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I got schooled : the unlikely story of how a moonlighting movie maker learned the five keys to closing American's education gap
p.33
     linearity fallacy, and that I call the if-some-is-good-more-is-better syndrome.  We find it difficult to recognize threshold effects: phenomena that offer benefits only to a particular point.  People who consume half as much vitamin A as they need can lose their vision to an ugly disease called xerophthalmia;* eating twice as much Vitamin A as needed doesn't give them 20/10 vision.  In the same way, a school that buys only half as many textbooks as it needs is in trouble, but one that buys twice as many as it needs is just wasting money.

('I got schooled : the unlikely story of how a moonlighting movie maker learned the five keys to closing American's education gap', M. Night Shyamalan, © 2013, Simon & Schuster)
(Shyamalan, M. Night(2013); 'I got schooled', © 2013, Simon & Schuster, [317.82694 Shyamala 2013], p.33)

     *  the M. Night Shyamalan Foundation have been funding vitamin therapy aimed directly at this problems for years.
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 • 'distribution of effect'
 • inter-action effects
 • inter-action effects dominate main effects.

I got schooled : the unlikely story of how a moonlighting movie maker learned the five keys to closing American's education gap
pp.41-42
     ... an article entitled "Leadership as the Practice of Improvement."  It was written by one of the most prominent educational researchers in the country, Richard Elmore at Harvard, who showed that there really aren't many direct effects in education that can be traced back to a single policy or program.  What really happens is that a group of programs alters the distribution of effects around the mean.  It shifts those curves of performance, usually in small and marginal ways.
     What that means is that it isn't the direct effects that matter nearly as much as the 'distribution of effect'.  Moving the curve, a little bit at a time.  But that doesn't mean that the effect isn't real.  Here's his important quote:

     "In the language of old-fashioined analysis of variance,
      inter-action effects dominate main effects. [emphasis
      added. begin.]  The effects most worth knowing about
      in policy analysis, and the least analyzed, are inter-
      action effects [emphasis added. ends.]"

     As a filmmaker, interaction effect is practically all we do.  In the famous example, if you put a shot of a man staring and edit it to a steaming bowl of soup, we will feel the man is hungry.  If we put a shot of a man staring and edit it to a voluptuous woman, who is undressing, we will think he is lusting after her.  I've been making movies for more than twenty years, and I know that no one scene makes a movie work.  In fact, I'd take it a step further: Improving any one scene won't necessarily make the movie better.  It's just as likely to make it worse.  Interaction are what matter.
     If Professor Elmore was right, what we were looking for wasn't a list of policies that helped to close America's achievement gap independent of one another.  We needed to find the practices that had their biggest impact from interacting with other practices.  We needed a system.  "You have to do them all."
     Now, for the first time, I knew what the question had to be, and I took it back to James.  "Is there a handful of tenets in education, like 'sleep eight hours a day' and 'exercise three times a week,' that interact in ways that multiply their impact?"
     Answering that question took nearly another year.

('I got schooled : the unlikely story of how a moonlighting movie maker learned the five keys to closing American's education gap', M. Night Shyamalan, © 2013, Simon & Schuster)
 (Shyamalan, M. Night(2013); 'I got schooled', © 2013, Simon & Schuster, [317.82694 Shyamala 2013], pp.41-42)
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